Negotiations between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, presidents of Russia and Ukraine respectively, represent a complex and fraught chapter in the ongoing conflict between the two nations. The possibility, modalities, and ultimate failure of direct talks have been a recurring theme since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Early in the conflict, there were several rounds of negotiations held primarily in Belarus and Turkey. These initial talks, while yielding little substantive progress, focused on potential ceasefire agreements, humanitarian corridors, and the future political status of Ukraine. Ukrainian demands centered on a complete withdrawal of Russian troops, the restoration of Ukrainian territorial integrity (including Crimea and the Donbas region), and security guarantees from international partners.
Russia, on the other hand, initially demanded Ukraine’s “demilitarization” and “denazification,” vague terms widely interpreted as regime change. They also insisted on Ukraine’s neutrality, meaning it would be barred from joining NATO or any other military alliance deemed threatening to Russia. As the war progressed, Russia reiterated its claim to the territories it occupied, particularly in the Donbas and the southern regions of Ukraine.
Several factors contributed to the eventual breakdown of negotiations. The discovery of alleged Russian war crimes in areas previously occupied by Russian forces, particularly in Bucha, significantly hardened Ukrainian public opinion and made concessions politically untenable for Zelenskyy. Furthermore, the unwavering military support from Western nations emboldened Ukraine to resist Russian demands and maintain its goal of reclaiming all occupied territories.
From the Russian perspective, the perceived inflexibility of Ukraine and the increasing Western involvement in the conflict solidified their conviction that achieving their objectives required military force rather than diplomatic compromise. The annexation of four Ukrainian regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson) in September 2022 further complicated the situation, effectively closing the door on any near-term prospect of a negotiated settlement based on pre-invasion borders.
Since then, direct talks between Putin and Zelenskyy have been largely absent. Both leaders have publicly expressed skepticism about the possibility of meaningful negotiations, setting preconditions that are currently mutually exclusive. Zelenskyy has consistently stated that negotiations are only possible after a complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory, while Putin continues to insist on the recognition of Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territories.
The future of negotiations remains uncertain. The conflict’s trajectory, the balance of power on the battlefield, and the willingness of international actors to mediate will all play a crucial role in determining whether direct talks between Putin and Zelenskyy can resume and, if so, whether they can lead to a lasting peace agreement. At present, the prospects for such a scenario appear remote.