Portugal held snap parliamentary elections on March 10, 2024, following the resignation of Prime Minister António Costa in November 2023 due to a corruption investigation. The election resulted in a narrow victory for the center-right Democratic Alliance (AD), led by Luís Montenegro, but without an outright majority in the 230-seat Assembly of the Republic.
The AD secured 80 seats, edging out the Socialist Party (PS), previously in power for eight years, which won 78 seats under the leadership of Pedro Nuno Santos. The far-right Chega party, led by André Ventura, experienced significant gains, becoming the third-largest force in parliament with 50 seats. This marked a considerable shift in the Portuguese political landscape, reflecting growing concerns about immigration, cost of living, and political corruption.
The Liberal Initiative (IL) secured 8 seats, while the Left Bloc (BE) and the Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), an alliance between the Communist Party and the Greens, each won 5 and 4 seats respectively. Livre, a left-wing party advocating for environmental and social justice, also won 4 seats.
The fragmented parliamentary composition presents challenges for forming a stable government. While the AD emerged as the largest party, it lacks the necessary majority to govern alone. Luís Montenegro has repeatedly stated his unwillingness to form a coalition with Chega, citing fundamental differences in political values. This stance leaves him with limited options for securing parliamentary support.
The Socialist Party, despite its second-place finish, has also ruled out a grand coalition with the AD, leaving Portugal in a state of political uncertainty. Negotiations are ongoing to explore potential alliances or agreements that could provide the AD with sufficient parliamentary backing to govern. One possibility involves seeking support from IL and potentially negotiating issue-by-issue agreements with other smaller parties.
The election results reflect a significant shift in Portuguese political sentiment. The rise of Chega underscores a growing dissatisfaction with traditional parties and a desire for more radical solutions to the country’s problems. The Socialists’ decline suggests a fatigue with their governance after years in power. The ability of Luís Montenegro to navigate the complex political landscape and form a stable government will be crucial for Portugal’s future. Failure to do so could potentially lead to further political instability and the possibility of another election in the near future. The focus now is on the ongoing negotiations and the potential compromises that will be necessary to establish a functioning government capable of addressing Portugal’s economic and social challenges.
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