The Istanbul talks, held in late March 2022, represent a significant, albeit ultimately unsuccessful, attempt to negotiate a ceasefire and potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the early stages of the conflict. These negotiations, facilitated by Turkey, offered a glimmer of hope amidst the escalating violence and displacement.

The Ukrainian delegation presented a set of proposals centered around a commitment to neutrality, foregoing NATO membership and agreeing to not host foreign military bases or weaponry on its territory. In exchange, Ukraine demanded legally binding security guarantees from several countries, including Russia, the US, the UK, France, Turkey, China, Canada, Italy, Poland, and Israel. These guarantees, similar to Article 5 of the NATO treaty, would obligate guarantor nations to defend Ukraine in the event of a future attack.

Crucially, the proposed agreement stipulated that these security guarantees would not apply to Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, or the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics in the Donbas region. The status of these territories was to be determined through further direct negotiations between the presidents of Russia and Ukraine within a 15-year timeframe. This represented a significant concession from Ukraine, implicitly acknowledging Russia’s control over these regions for the foreseeable future.

Russia, for its part, signaled a willingness to de-escalate its military activities around Kyiv and Chernihiv, presenting this as a gesture of goodwill aimed at fostering trust and creating conditions for further negotiations. The Russian delegation also expressed interest in the Ukrainian proposals, suggesting they were a basis for potential progress. However, underlying these pronouncements were persistent demands related to the “denazification” and “demilitarization” of Ukraine, terms that remained vaguely defined and subject to interpretation.

Following the Istanbul talks, there was a brief period of optimism. However, the subsequent discovery of alleged war crimes committed against civilians in Bucha and other areas previously occupied by Russian forces drastically altered the atmosphere. These revelations led to widespread international condemnation and significantly eroded trust in Russia’s commitment to genuine negotiations.

Ultimately, the Istanbul talks failed to produce a lasting ceasefire or a comprehensive peace agreement. While they demonstrated a willingness from both sides to engage in dialogue and explore potential compromises, fundamental disagreements regarding territorial integrity, security guarantees, and the broader political future of Ukraine proved insurmountable. The talks highlighted the complexities of the conflict and the significant challenges involved in achieving a negotiated resolution. Despite the initial hope, the brutal realities on the ground, coupled with a lack of mutual trust and shifting geopolitical dynamics, ultimately doomed the Istanbul process.